Brace yourselves for culture wars and 527s

If you look a the polls, the McCain campaign desperately needs to change the subject. Were the election take place today and follow the polls exactly, Obama would win with a landslide 364 electoral college votes, to McCain's 174.

State(EC Votes) Obama McCain RCP Average

Ohio (20) 48.7 45.2 Obama +3.5
Florida (27) 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0
Nevada (5) 49.3 47.5 Obama +1.8
N Carolina (15) 47.8 46.3 Obama +1.5
Missouri (11) 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3
Indiana (11) 45.3 47.5 McCain +2.2
Virginia (13) 49.9 45.0 Obama +4.9
Colorado (9) 47.6 44.6 Obama +3.0
Wisconsin (10) 48.0 43.0 Obama +5.0
N Hampshire (4) 49.8 41.8 Obama +8.0
Michigan (17) 49.1 42.1 Obama +7.0
New Mexico (5) 49.8 42.5 Obama +7.3

Source: RealClearPolitics.com

The attempt is in its early stages, with Sarah Palin bringing up Obama's association to "domestic terrorist" (in the 60s) William Ayers. Ayers was a radical in his youth who plotted to attack parts of the government. If you want details do your own research. The association with Obama is that Ayers hosted a fundraiser for Obama in the 90s. A weak connection, but not insignificant.

John McCain has said in the past that in remaining consisted with his call for a respectful campaign, he did not want to bring up Obama's pastor Reverend Jeremiah Wright, who was the cause of much controversy for Obama during the late primaries.
Although McCain's campaign might not bring it up directly, the 527s (independent political groups who support a candidate and raise money to support the candidate, or attack the opponent) are free to.

In 2004 John Kerry was victim of one of these groups, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, who called Kerry's war experience into question. Kerry's campaign decided not to dignify the attacks with a response, and the decision was a major factor in his loss to Bush.

With Wright, Ayers, and controversial Chicago real estate developer Tony Rezko, combined with Obama's childhood in predominantly muslim Indonesia and his ethnicity in general, these groups will have plenty to work with to create another October surprise.

There's also the question of the culture wars that dominated the 2004 election. Conservative groups are likely gearing up for an effort to remind their flock that Obama is pro-choice, pro gay rights (although him and Biden have smartly shied away from supporting gay marriage, dulling the right's artillery), and has a questionable christian belief system. A cynic would say that Obama only declared his Christianity and joined a church when he knew it would be essential to his political career. Personally, as an agnostic, I don't care.

Reviving the culture wars will be a challenge as long as the economy dominates headlines, and Obama's camp can keep towing the "look at them try to change the subject" line. But the effect can still be seen in the form of turnout. Bush was able to benefit from religious right turnout in 2004 in large part due to other measures added to the presidential ballot, such as state-level gay marriage proposals. Canadians should keep in mind that unlike our election ballots, American ones have a long list of choices you make when voting, like senate, congressional, and local races as well as new law propositions.

Anyway, I'm rambling. Bottom line is get ready for a hell of an October.

Edit:
Oh it's on!
Obama camapaign releases a doc about McCain's ties to the savings and loan scandals of the late 80s and early 90s, of which I know absolutely nothing about, but its clear that this doc wasnt made yesterday.